- Experts say the United States missing its goal of a 70 percent vaccination rate by July 4 means several million fewer Americans will have received at least 1 dose of vaccine by the holiday.
- Experts note that the threshold for herd immunity for COVID-19 is shifting due to the emergence of more contagious coronavirus variants.
- They say the United States should look at past successful vaccination campaigns against diseases such as polio and mumps to determine how to best fight COVID-19.
In May, President Joe Biden appealed to Americans’ patriotism in the fight against COVID-19 by rallying the country to hit a 70 percent vaccination threshold by July 4.
Turns out, we’ll fall just short: Somewhere around 67 percent of adults in the United States will have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by Independence Day on Sunday.
Close but not an insignificant gap.
“While 2 to 3 percent sounds like a relatively small shortfall, it represents 3.4 to 5.2 million adults who are unvaccinated,” Hannah Sally, a senior epidemiologist for Informa Pharma Intelligence, told Healthline.
“Considering that the current rate of vaccination stands at about 1 million doses per day on average, we may assume that it would only take a week or so past the deadline to reach the 70 percent goal,” she said.
Which still likely won’t be enough.
There are many factors complicating the idea of herd immunity against COVID-19 and estimates vary as to what percentage of vaccinated Americans will get us there.
Sally said a major variable is a relative lack of fear in young people, which is helping keep the number of vaccinations lower than it should be.
Sally notes that only about 49 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds have received at least one dose, compared with more than 85 percent of people 65 years and older.
“Vaccine reluctancy in younger adults poses a major challenge and may impede the progress toward reaching the 70 percent goal,” she said.
Source: healthline