The Price We Paid: How Reopenings Last Year Affected COVID-19 Hospitalizations, Deaths

• Researchers say the reopening of businesses and public places last spring did eventually cause COVID-19 hospitalizations to increase.
• COVID-19 deaths also rose, but not by as much. Experts say that may be because better treatments were being introduced by then.
• The researchers said they hope their study will help healthcare professionals and state leaders plan better when the next pandemic hits.

The reopening of businesses and public facilities in some states during the initial height of the pandemic between April and July 2020 caused an increase in COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths.

That’s according to research published in JAMA Health Forum that examined the impact state reopening policies had on pandemic outcomes.

“Earlier research showed that during the closure period (before reopening), reduced mobility was associated with reductions in hospitalizations and deaths,” the study authors wrote.

“Our findings that hospitalization and mortality trends were positive after reopenings supports the findings from studies showing reopenings were substantially associated with higher mobility, emphasizing the health outcomes associated with reopenings,” they added.

In undertaking their study, the researchers analyzed 3,686 days of state-day observations across 47 states between April 16 and July 31, 2020.

“We examined two COVID-19–specific outcome variables: current hospitalizations per capita and new COVID-19–related deaths per capita for each state-day. We sought to evaluate how trends in these outcomes varied before and after state reopenings,” the authors wrote.

The researchers said they found that reopenings across the United States were associated with 5,319 additional people hospitalized every day due to COVID-19.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, said the study’s findings are important.

“Having an academic unit look at it very critically, soberly, and put careful numbers to it, I think gives these results a special weight and meaning,” he told Healthline. “It’s important to have this academically quantified. Here we have a very sober, objective, quantified sense of how much of a public health price we paid for reopening. I think that’s very, very important.”