- Many factors can influence how soon the United States will reach herd immunity for COVID-19, but many health experts expect the end of the pandemic is in sight.
- It’s theoretically possible the United States could reach herd immunity by the end of spring.
- But new SARS-CoV-2 variants and spotty vaccine availability make this unlikely, according to some experts.
As COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths plummet across the United States, and COVID-19 vaccinations rise to 1.7 million a day, health experts are once again talking about herd immunity.
Also known as community immunity, this is the point at which enough people are immune to a virus — through vaccination or natural immunity — that the virus no longer easily spreads through a population.
The precise threshold for herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is unknown. But recent estimates range from 70 to 90 percent.
That means a majority of people would need immunity to block the spread of the virus through a community.
Herd immunity isn’t just an abstract calculation made by virologists and epidemiologists. It has implications for how soon public health restrictions such as physical distancing and mask mandates can be safely lifted.
To put it another way: How soon will life return to “normal”?
Source: healthline