Here’s How Fast the COVID-19 Variant Found in the U.K. is Spreading in the U.S.

• The coronavirus variant detected in the United Kingdom could lead to a surge in new COVID-19 cases.
• This trajectory would put even more pressure on our already overwhelmed healthcare system.
• Additionally, there are other homegrown variants that could accelerate the pandemic over the next few months.

The new coronavirus variant detected in the United Kingdom is expected to be the dominant strain in the United States by March.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently published a model illustrating the impact the the variant named B.1.1.7 could have on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

The variant isn’t thought to cause a more severe illness or diminish the efficacy of the vaccines. But epidemiological evidence suggests it’s up to 50 percent more transmissible than other variants going around.

Left uncontrolled, the B.1.1.7 variant could lead to a surge in new cases, even more than what we’re currently seeing. This would lead to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, according to the CDC’s model.

This trajectory would put even more pressure on our already overwhelmed healthcare system.

But there’s a lot of factors that could change the outcomes predicted by the model, such as vaccines, population immunity, and our behavior.

There’s also other new homegrown variants — like the ones identified in Ohio and Los Angeles — that could accelerate the pandemic over the next few months.

The key is to vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible and to not let our guard down just yet.

The same mitigation measures used throughout the pandemic — mask wearing, hand washing, and physical distancing — will work just as well on this variant as any others.